States of Change: Two Perspectives on Demographic Changes in the States Ahead of the 2020 Presidential Election

The States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project is a collaboration of the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Brookings Institution, the Center for American Progress, and the Democracy Fund. The project began in 2014 and has been generously funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Democracy Fund. In year one, States of Change examined the changing demography of the nation and projected the racial and ethnic composition of every state to 2060. The detailed findings, available in the initial report, were discussed at the project’s February 2015 conference. In year two, the project’s leaders commissioned six papers on the policy implications of the demographic changes, two each from different political perspectives on the significance of the changes for the family, for the economy and workforce, and for the social contract. A second report, released with the papers in February 2016, projected possible presidential election outcomes from 2016 to 2032 using data from the project’s first report. In year three, the project commissioned two papers from political strategists on demographic change and its impact on political campaigns. A third report, released at the project’s February 2017 conference, considered the impact of demographic change on representation in the political system. Last year, in conjunction with the release of a report on presidential elections after the pattern-breaking results of the 2016 election, the project commissioned two papers looking at future demographic coalitions and their impact on electoral outcomes. This year, the project releases a report on how demographic shifts are transforming the Republican and Democratic parties with new simulations charting the ever-changing electoral landscape for Republicans and Democrats that foreshadow what could happen in the 2020 primaries and general election. The authors of this year’s papers focus on how these democratic shifts may materialize in the states and their impact on statewide and national electoral results. The opinions expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Brookings Institution, the Center for American Progress, or the Democracy Fund.