Working to find actionable solutions to the nation's key challenges.

By Nicholas Danforth and Jessica Michek

Two months ago, when Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan first announced snap elections for June 24, the assumption among many observers was that he and his party would win comfortably, if not entirely fairly. Since then, the struggles of the Turkish lira, combined with a sense of continuing confidence among the opposition, have raised the possibility of a number of different outcomes, including a surprise opposition victory or alternatively a turn to more nakedly authoritarian measures from the government. Part One of this paper offers an overview of the election landscape and the campaign to date. Part Two considers how these dynamics might play out in a range of post-election scenarios. Finally, with almost any outcome likely to produce new challenges for U.S. policy, Part Three examines how Washington should be prepared to respond.

Part I: The Election Landscape

June 15, 2018 | National Security

Though the AKP has kept its hold on power several emerging dynamics have created a real sense of optimism among the opposition that the results, this time, might be different.

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Part II: Post Election Scenarios

June 15, 2018 | National Security

A clear-cut victory would still leave Erdoğan facing a deteriorating economic climate, strained relations with Western partners and an ongoing war with PKK-linked forces.

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Part III: Recommendations

June 15, 2018 | National Security

Whatever the outcome of the elections, both Turkey and the U.S.-Turkish alliance will face a continuing series of challenges.

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