Bridging the Gap: Meeting Workforce Needs Over the Next Decade

Executive Summary

The U.S. workforce faces growing challenges as baby boomer retirements and lower birth rates slow labor force growth and drive labor shortages. This report identifies the areas at the highest risk of shortages over the next decade and discusses the role that federal policy can play in alleviating them.

The Labor Shortage Risk Index, created by the nonprofit research organization The Burning Glass Institute (BGI), assesses the risk of labor shortages over the next 5-10 years across occupations and industries. BGI’s analysis of education, experience, and skill requirements—derived from online job postings—offers real-time, granular insights into the workforce. BPC also analyzes public labor market data to better understand the evolution of labor supply and job openings. Integrating BGI’s dynamic insights with public data allows for a comprehensive assessment of potential workforce gaps. The key takeaways are as follows:

Over the next decade, the United States will see a surge in job openings driven by growing demand for labor and retiring Baby Boomers. The Health Care and Social Assistance industry sector will have the most openings during this period.

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects approximately 192 million job openings in the United States over the next decade, a significant increase from the 47 million openings it projected between 2014 and 2024.1 These openings represent the number of positions that employers will need to fill due to both growth—the creation of new jobs—and separations, where workers retire or transition to different occupations.
• Openings will be particularly heavy in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector (25.8 million), followed by the Accommodation and Food Services sector (25.5 million).

While Health Care and Social Assistance will have the most job openings, it is also the sector at greatest risk of not finding enough workers to meet projected demand. As a significant proportion of U.S. employment, this sector is a high-priority area for policy action.

• The Healthcare Practitioners and Technical and Healthcare Support occupational groups will see considerable growth in demand due to an increased emphasis on preventive care and a greater need for health care services from an aging population.
  • Specific occupations at risk of shortage in these groups include Registered Nurses, Nurse Practitioners, Medical and Health Services Managers, Personal Care and Home Health Aides, and health careadjacent occupations such as Medical Equipment Repairers.

• Many of these occupations have significant educational requirements, yet health care credential completions stagnated from 2013-2023 (+2%), with declines in medical assistant, licensed practical nurse, nursing assistant, and other areas.
• Apart from health care, Construction and Installation, Maintenance, and Repair roles are dominated by older workers set to retire, while these sectors are seeing a restricted labor pool due to a small share of entrants and significant certification requirements. An aging population drives an increased need for Transportation labor, yet many workers are nearing retirement.
• There is an elevated risk of shortages in highly skilled, college-educated areas, including Legal roles that are set for high retirement rates and Financial Management occupations that will see increased demand over the next decade.
• Despite having a considerable number of projected openings, the Accommodation and Food Services sector is at comparatively low risk of shortage, given that its workers are relatively young and the sector has low entry requirements and a high number of entrants.

To address shortages, improving education and training, expanding immigration, enhancing worker supports, and leveraging automation to augment the workforce are vital policy approaches.

• Education and Training: Education and training are essential to address both shortages and rapidly changing needs in skills. Health care educational completions have stagnated over the past decade (+2%), while apprenticeships in Transportation and Warehousing have declined (-14%). Policies can incentivize Americans to complete their education or training in areas at risk of shortage by promoting reenrollment for those who did not complete degrees and expanding Pell Grant eligibility to cover short-term programs. Policymakers can support retraining to help workers transition into shortage areas by leveraging overlapping skill sets.
• Expanding Immigration: Given the aging of the population, immigration is a vital way to supplement the workforce. Immigration is important for areas with significant projected growth in demand, such as Health Care and Social Assistance, and with high projected retirement rates and low entry, such as Construction and Transportation. Yet the immigration system prioritizes family reunification over workforce needs, has caps not updated since 1990, and is plagued by backlogs that cost the economy billions of dollars in gross domestic product (GDP).
• Enhancing Worker Supports: Providing worker supports, such as paid family leave and child care assistance, is crucial to keeping workers in the labor force and addressing shortages, particularly in female-dominated areas at high risk of shortages, including nursing and direct care. Many roles at the highest shortage risk offer little flexibility for part-time work or teleworking, making it difficult for those with caregiving responsibilities to remain in these roles.
• Leveraging Automation: Automation can enhance productivity in areas at risk of shortages, particularly in high-skilled, white-collar fields, such as Legal and Financial Management. Automation is more challenging in hands-on industries like Health Care and Social Assistance, but targeted applications can augment rather than replace human workers. Examples include automating aspects of medical services management and equipment repair and deploying software platforms to support care staff in nursing homes.

This report emphasizes the role that policy can play in addressing the risk of labor shortages. Policymakers should not lose sight of the need to use workforce policy to address other important goals, such as boosting international competitiveness and spurring innovation in critical technologies.