Is there a demographic trend that favors either party? Ruy Teixeira, author of The Emerging Democratic Majority, has argued that the Democratic future is bright with the growth of the Hispanic vote and the move of younger educated voters to the Democratic Party. Sean Trende, in his recently released The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs – and Who Will Take It, argues that the future is less certain for Republicans and Democrats. Both the Reagan coalition and the Clinton/Obama coalition have fractures, and there is no clear indication of what the future holds.
BPC examined these longer-range trends and more immediate questions such as: How will the Hispanic vote affect 2012? Will the president draw African American and younger voters in as large numbers as in 2008? Will the GOP advantage in the over 65 demographic increase as it has for the past several elections?
Joint Fellow, Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation