On March 16, 2017, the debt limit was reinstated from its suspension, and the Treasury Department began to implement its so-called “extraordinary measures” to continue meeting all of the federal government’s financial obligations. BPC’s updated projections show that, absent legislative action, those measures and the cash they generate will only last until early to mid-October 2017. The day those measures are exhausted and Treasury runs out of cash on hand, known as the “X Date,” the federal government would no longer be able to pay its bills in full and on time.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in its own projection similarly estimates that the X Date will most likely arrive in early to mid-October 2017.

All of these projections carry significant uncertainty, due to the unpredictable nature of the federal government’s cash flows. Moreover, major changes in fiscal policy or economic conditions could impact the timing of the “X Date.”