Debt Limit Analysis
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The debt limit, set by law, restricts the total amount of money that the federal government can legally borrow. When the debt limit is reached, the Treasury Department can no longer borrow money to cover government operations. It can temporarily draw on “extraordinary measures”—accounting maneuvers that can allow the government to continue standard operations for a limited period.
Once those extraordinary measures and the Treasury’s cash reserves run out, the federal government would reach the “X Date”—the day on which the U.S. government is unable to meet all its obligations in full and on time. This unprecedented event would likely have catastrophic consequences for financial markets and Americans throughout the country.
On December 16, 2021, President Biden signed legislation that raised the debt limit by $2.5 trillion to approximately $31.4 trillion, resolving the latest debt limit standoff. BPC projects that the federal government will reach its new debt limit sometime during or after the first quarter of 2023 and likely will not reach the X Date until at least the third quarter of 2023.
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BPC Updates Debt Limit “X Date” Timing: Could Arrive as Soon as Mid-December
BPC Releases New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection: Likely to Arrive Between Mid-December and Mid-February
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BPC Narrows Debt Limit "X Date" Range; Treasury Could Miss Payments in Less Than Two Weeks
The Costs of Crossing the Debt Limit “X Date”
BPC Updates Debt Limit “X Date” Projection: Likely to Arrive Between October 15 and November 4
Debt Limit Analysis: Everything You Need to Know in 40 Slides
Prioritization: What Comes After the Debt Limit “X Date”?
BPC Narrows Debt Limit “X Date” Range to Mid-October Through Mid-November
BPC Warns Debt Limit “X Date” Will Be Especially Difficult to Forecast
The Federal Debt Limit: Crunch Time
The Debt Limit: What You Need to Know
Recent History of the Debt Limit
Federal Debt Limit Myths vs. Facts
The Debt Limit Through the Years
Extraordinary Measures, Simplified
Debt Limit Explainer with Andrew Carothers
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PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
For many years, BPC experts have been leading voices in debt limit analysis. Review our previous projections, analyses, and reports.
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October 6: BPC Narrows Debt Limit “X Date” Range; Treasury Could Miss Payments in Less Than Two Weeks
September 27: The Costs of Crossing the Debt Limit “X Date”September 24: 2021 Debt Limit Analysis
September 24: BPC Updates Debt Limit “X Date” Projection: Likely to Arrive Between October 15 and November 4
September 10: BPC Narrows Debt Limit “X Date” Range to Mid-October Through Mid-November
September 2: Prioritization: What Comes After the Debt Limit “X Date”?
August 6: Debt Limit Analysis:Everything You Need to Know in 40 Slides
July 8: BPC Warns Debt Limit “X Date” Will Be Especially Difficult to Forecast
July 8: The Federal Debt Limit: Crunch Time
May 6: In Light of New Treasury Guidance, BPC Projects Federal Debt Limit “X Date” for Fall
February 2: BPC Projects Federal Debt Limit “X Date” for Late Summer, Early Fall
January 5: It’s Time to Rethink the Debt Limit
January 5: The Debt Limit: What You Need to Know
January 5: Recent History of the Debt Limit
January 5: Extraordinary Measures, Simplified
January 2: Federal Debt Limit Myths vs. Facts
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July 8: New Projection: Debt Limit “X Date” Could Arrive in September
May 9: BPC Narrows Debt Limit “X Date” Range to October/Early November
May 9: Treasury Has $600 Billion Left to Finance the Government: How Long Will It Last?
May 9: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides
March 6: Breaking Down BPC’s New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection
March 6: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides
March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty
March 4: Shai Akabas: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit
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February 14: Analysis: Debt Limit to Increase More Than $1 Trillion After Suspension
February 6: Government Shutdown Effect on Debt Limit: This Time May be Different
February 1: Akabas: Funding Deadline, New Tax Law Complicate Debt Limit Picture
February 1: New Tax Law Could Bring “X Date” Closer, Heightens Uncertainty
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December 1: Debt Limit Crunch: BPC Estimates “X Date” Will Land in March
September 5: Harvey Raises Stakes on Debt Limit Debate
August 31: The Debt Limit Through the Years
August 23: 2017 Debt Limit Analysis
August 11: Treasury Bill Rate Spike Signals Cost of Approaching Debt Limit “X Date”
July 26: The Debt Limit: 100 Years and Counting
July 12: BPC Narrows “X-Date” Forecast to Early to Mid-October
June 12: BPC Holds “X-Date” Forecast at October/November, But with Heightened Uncertainty
March 16: BPC’s 2017 Debt Limit “X Date” Projections and State of Play
March 9: America’s debt limit: How the extraordinary became the ordinary
February 7: Recent History of the Debt Limit
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September 13: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Threatens to Return Next Year
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September 11: Lew Letter on Debt Limit in Line with CBO, BPC Projections
July 10: Debt Limit Brinkmanship Threatens Markets
U.S. Government Accountability Office: Market Response to Recent Impasses Underscores Need to Consider Alternative Approaches
May 18: Debt Limit Update: Strong Tax Season Moves Most Likely X-Date Window to November/December
March 13: Debt Limit Reinstatement: Why This Time is Different l Download the full analysis
March 3: Debt Limit Update: X Date Most Likely in 4Q of 2015
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February 12: House-Passed Suspension Would Add Approximately $1 Trillion to Debt Limit in March 2015
February 6: What to do with the Federal Debt Limit? Five Ideas
January 30: BPC Debt Limit Projection: X Date Will Arrive Soon After Debt Limit Reinstatement
January 9: Extraordinary Measures, Simplified
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December 19: Late Start to Tax Filing Season Affects X Date
November 21: Thoughts on CBO’s New Debt Limit Report
November 21: Debt Limit Suspension: Frequently Asked Questions
October 9: Could the X Date be delayed by extending the Debt Issuance Suspension Period?
October 8: As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow
October 3: Will the Government Shutdown Delay the X Date?
September 25: Debt Limit Update: No Change to BPC X Date Projection
September 10: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways
July 16: Debt Limit Update: Still on Track for a Fall X Date
May 23: Debt Limit Reinstated at $16.7 Trillion: Updated X Date Estimate
May 9: Updated X Date Estimate: GSE Dividend Announcements
May 8: H.R. 807 (the Full Faith and Credit Act) and the Debt Limit
April 26: The Debt Limit: Updated X Date Projection
January 31: H.R. 325, The Debt Limit, and Extraordinary Measures: A Technical Note
January 30: When Will the Next Debt Limit X Date Be?
January 24: Fiscal Timeline Under Passage of H.R. 325
January 24: The House Republican Debt Limit Proposal, Explained
January 16: What Is a Government Default on its Debt?
January 16: Platinum Coins and IOUs: Missing the Point
January 16: Debt Limit Analysis Update
January 11: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways
January 11: Will the Delay in the Tax Filing Season Affect the X Date?
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