Debt Limit Analysis
On March 2, 2019, the debt limit was reinstated at $22 trillion.
To operate the government at the debt limit, the Treasury Department once again deployed so-called “extraordinary measures,” accounting maneuvers that allow for full government operations to continue for an additional, but limited, period of time.
If those extraordinary measures run out and Treasury depletes its cash reserves, the federal government would reach the “X Date” – the unprecedented day on which the U.S. government is unable to meet all its obligations in full and on time.
BPC’s latest analysis indicates a risk that the “X Date” could arrive in the first half of September 2019, although October remains the most likely scenario.
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2019 Debt Limit Projections
Explaining the Debt Limit
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
For many years, BPC experts have been leading voices in debt limit analysis. Review our previous projections, analyses, and reports.
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July 8: New Projection: Debt Limit “X Date” Could Arrive in September
May 9: BPC Narrows Debt Limit “X Date” Range to October/Early November
May 9: Treasury Has $600 Billion Left to Finance the Government: How Long Will It Last?
May 9: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides
March 6: Breaking Down BPC’s New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection
March 6: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides
March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty
March 4: Shai Akabas: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit
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February 14: Analysis: Debt Limit to Increase More Than $1 Trillion After Suspension
February 6: Government Shutdown Effect on Debt Limit: This Time May be Different
February 1: Akabas: Funding Deadline, New Tax Law Complicate Debt Limit Picture
February 1: New Tax Law Could Bring “X Date” Closer, Heightens Uncertainty
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December 1: Debt Limit Crunch: BPC Estimates “X Date” Will Land in March
September 5: Harvey Raises Stakes on Debt Limit Debate
August 31: The Debt Limit Through the Years
August 24: 2017 Debt Limit Analysis
August 11: Treasury Bill Rate Spike Signals Cost of Approaching Debt Limit “X Date”
July 26: The Debt Limit: 100 Years and Counting
July 12: BPC Narrows “X-Date” Forecast to Early to Mid-October
June 12: BPC Holds “X-Date” Forecast at October/November, But with Heightened Uncertainty
March 16: BPC’s 2017 Debt Limit “X Date” Projections and State of Play
March 9: America’s debt limit: How the extraordinary became the ordinary
February 7: Recent History of the Debt Limit
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September 13: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Threatens to Return Next Year
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September 11: Lew Letter on Debt Limit in Line with CBO, BPC Projections
July 10: Debt Limit Brinkmanship Threatens Markets
U.S. Government Accountability Office: Market Response to Recent Impasses Underscores Need to Consider Alternative Approaches
May 18: Debt Limit Update: Strong Tax Season Moves Most Likely X-Date Window to November/December
March 13: Debt Limit Reinstatement: Why This Time is Different l Download the full analysis
March 3: Debt Limit Update: X Date Most Likely in 4Q of 2015
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February 12: House-Passed Suspension Would Add Approximately $1 Trillion to Debt Limit in March 2015
February 6: What to do with the Federal Debt Limit? Five Ideas
January 30: BPC Debt Limit Projection: X Date Will Arrive Soon After Debt Limit Reinstatement
January 9: Extraordinary Measures, Simplified
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December 19: Late Start to Tax Filing Season Affects X Date
November 21: Thoughts on CBO’s New Debt Limit Report
November 21: Debt Limit Suspension: Frequently Asked Questions
October 9: Could the X Date be delayed by extending the Debt Issuance Suspension Period?
October 8: As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow
October 3: Will the Government Shutdown Delay the X Date?
September 25: Debt Limit Update: No Change to BPC X Date Projection
September 10: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways
July 16: Debt Limit Update: Still on Track for a Fall X Date
May 23: Debt Limit Reinstated at $16.7 Trillion: Updated X Date Estimate
May 9: Updated X Date Estimate: GSE Dividend Announcements
May 8: H.R. 807 (the Full Faith and Credit Act) and the Debt Limit
April 26: The Debt Limit: Updated X Date Projection
January 31: H.R. 325, The Debt Limit, and Extraordinary Measures: A Technical Note
January 30: When Will the Next Debt Limit X Date Be?
January 24: Fiscal Timeline Under Passage of H.R. 325
January 24: The House Republican Debt Limit Proposal, Explained
January 16: What Is a Government Default on its Debt?
January 16: Platinum Coins and IOUs: Missing the Point
January 16: Debt Limit Analysis Update
January 11: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways
January 11: Will the Delay in the Tax Filing Season Affect the X Date?