On March 2, 2019, the debt limit was reinstated at $22 trillion.
To operate the government at the debt limit, the Treasury Department once again deployed so-called “extraordinary measures,” accounting maneuvers that allow for full government operations to continue for an additional, but limited, period of time.
BPC’s analysis indicates Treasury will have enough cash on hand and extraordinary measures to operate the government until sometime in the fall of 2019.
If those extraordinary measures run out and Treasury depletes its cash reserves, the federal government would reach the “X Date” – the unprecedented day on which the U.S. government is unable to meet all of its obligations in full and on time.
BPC will release a blog detailing its current projection soon.
LATEST PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS
EXPLAINING THE DEBT LIMIT
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For many years, BPC experts have been leading voices in debt limit analysis. Review our previous projections, analyses, and reports.
2019 March 6: Breaking Down BPC’s New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection March 6: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty March 4: Shai Akabas: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit 2018 March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty March 4: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit 2018 February 14: Analysis: Debt Limit to Increase More Than $1 Trillion After Suspension February 6: Government Shutdown Effect on Debt Limit: This Time May be Different February 1: Akabas: Funding Deadline, New Tax Law Complicate Debt Limit Picture February 1: New Tax Law Could Bring “X Date” Closer, Heightens Uncertainty 2017 December 1: Debt Limit Crunch: BPC Estimates “X Date” Will Land in March November 30: CBO Projects Spring Debt Limit Crunch, Similar to Previous BPC Estimate September 8: Trump Shows Bipartisanship, But Deal Punts Tough Budget Decisions September 5: Harvey Raises Stakes on Debt Limit Debate August 31: The Debt Limit Through the Years August 24: 2017 Debt Limit Analysis August 11: Treasury Bill Rate Spike Signals Cost of Approaching Debt Limit “X Date” July 27: Shai Akabas and Steve Bell: Trump’s Treasury secretary faces crucial test on America’s debt limit July 26: The Debt Limit: 100 Years and Counting July 12: BPC Narrows “X-Date” Forecast to Early to Mid-October June 12: BPC Holds “X-Date” Forecast at October/November, But with Heightened Uncertainty March 16: BPC’s 2017 Debt Limit “X Date” Projections and State of Play March 9: America’s debt limit: How the extraordinary became the ordinary February 7: Recent History of the Debt Limit 2016 September 13: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Threatens to Return Next Year 2015 October 27: Debt Limit “X-date” Range Updated to Nov. 10-16 October 26: Moody’s Debt Default Statement Doesn’t Adequately Address Risks October 22: Treasury’s Auction Postponement: “Canary in the Coal Mine” October 7: Treasury Will Hit “X-date” for Paying Debt Nov. 10-19 October 2: Treasury Could Run Out of Cash Mid- To Late-November September 11: Lew Letter on Debt Limit in Line with CBO, BPC Projections September 2: Latest Monthly Treasury Data Doesn’t Change BPC Debt Limit Projection August 25: CBO Debt Limit Projection Consistent with BPC’s Analysis July 10: Debt Limit Brinkmanship Threatens Markets
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
Market Response to Recent Impasses Underscores Need to Consider Alternative Approaches May 18: Debt Limit Update: Strong Tax Season Moves Most Likely X-Date Window to November/December March 13: Debt Limit Reinstatement: Why This Time is Different l Download the full analysis March 3: Debt Limit Update: X Date Most Likely in 4Q of 2015 2014 February 12: House-Passed Suspension Would Add Approximately $1 Trillion to Debt Limit in March 2015 February 6: What to do with the Federal Debt Limit? Five Ideas January 30: BPC Debt Limit Projection: X Date Will Arrive Soon After Debt Limit Reinstatement January 9: Extraordinary Measures, Simplified 2013 December 19: Late Start to Tax Filing Season Affects X Date November 21: Thoughts on CBO’s New Debt Limit Report November 21: Debt Limit Suspension: Frequently Asked Questions October 18: BPC Estimates Agreement Will Increase Debt Limit by Roughly $600 billion; Debt Limit Suspended Until February 8, 2014 October 9: Could the X Date be delayed by extending the Debt Issuance Suspension Period? October 8: As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow October 3: Will the Government Shutdown Delay the X Date? September 25: Debt Limit Update: No Change to BPC X Date Projection September 10: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways August 26: Statement by the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Steve Bell on the New Debt Limit Deadline July 16: Debt Limit Update: Still on Track for a Fall X Date May 23: Debt Limit Reinstated at $16.7 Trillion: Updated X Date Estimate May 9: Updated X Date Estimate: GSE Dividend Announcements May 8: H.R. 807 (the Full Faith and Credit Act) and the Debt Limit April 26: The Debt Limit: Updated X Date Projection January 31: H.R. 325, The Debt Limit, and Extraordinary Measures: A Technical Note January 30: When Will the Next Debt Limit X Date Be? January 24: Fiscal Timeline Under Passage of H.R. 325 January 24: The House Republican Debt Limit Proposal, Explained January 16: What Is a Government Default on its Debt? January 16: Platinum Coins and IOUs: Missing the Point January 16: Debt Limit Analysis Update January 11: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways January 11: Will the Delay in the Tax Filing Season Affect the X Date? STAY INFORMED