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On March 2, 2019, the debt limit was reinstated at $22 trillion.

To operate the government at the debt limit, the Treasury Department once again deployed so-called “extraordinary measures,” accounting maneuvers that allow for full government operations to continue for an additional, but limited, period of time.

BPC’s analysis indicates Treasury will have enough cash on hand and extraordinary measures to operate the government until sometime in the fall of 2019.

If those extraordinary measures run out and Treasury depletes its cash reserves, the federal government would reach the “X Date” – the unprecedented day on which the U.S. government is unable to meet all of its obligations in full and on time.

BPC will release a blog detailing its current projection soon.

 

LATEST PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS

Blog: Breaking Down BPC’s New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection

PowerPoint Presentation: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides

Press Release: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty

Op-Ed: Shai Akabas: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit

 

 

EXPLAINING THE DEBT LIMIT

 

VIDEO EXPLAINERS

PREVIOUS ANALYSIS

For many years, BPC experts have been leading voices in debt limit analysis. Review our previous projections, analyses, and reports.

2019

March 6: Breaking Down BPC’s New Debt Limit “X Date” Projection

March 6: The Debt Limit: Everything You Need to Know in 30 Slides 

March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty

March 4: Shai Akabas: As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit

2018

March 4: BPC Projects Fall Debt Limit “X Date” Amid Heightened Uncertainty

March 4As the “X Date” Looms, It’s Time to Defang the Debt Limit

2018

February 14: Analysis: Debt Limit to Increase More Than $1 Trillion After Suspension

February 6Government Shutdown Effect on Debt Limit: This Time May be Different

February 1Akabas: Funding Deadline, New Tax Law Complicate Debt Limit Picture

February 1: New Tax Law Could Bring “X Date” Closer, Heightens Uncertainty

2017

December 1: Debt Limit Crunch: BPC Estimates “X Date” Will Land in March

November 30: CBO Projects Spring Debt Limit Crunch, Similar to Previous BPC Estimate

September 8: Trump Shows Bipartisanship, But Deal Punts Tough Budget Decisions

September 5: Harvey Raises Stakes on Debt Limit Debate

August 31: The Debt Limit Through the Years

August 24: 2017 Debt Limit Analysis

August 11: Treasury Bill Rate Spike Signals Cost of Approaching Debt Limit “X Date” 

July 27: Shai Akabas and Steve Bell: Trump’s Treasury secretary faces crucial test on America’s debt limit

July 26: The Debt Limit: 100 Years and Counting

July 12: BPC Narrows “X-Date” Forecast to Early to Mid-October

June 12: BPC Holds “X-Date” Forecast at October/November, But with Heightened Uncertainty

March 16: BPC’s 2017 Debt Limit “X Date” Projections and State of Play

March 9: America’s debt limit: How the extraordinary became the ordinary

February 7: Recent History of the Debt Limit

2016

September 13: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Threatens to Return Next Year

2015

October 27: Debt Limit “X-date” Range Updated to Nov. 10-16

October 26: Moody’s Debt Default Statement Doesn’t Adequately Address Risks

October 22: Treasury’s Auction Postponement: “Canary in the Coal Mine”

October 7: Treasury Will Hit “X-date” for Paying Debt Nov. 10-19

October 2: Treasury Could Run Out of Cash Mid- To Late-November

September 11: Lew Letter on Debt Limit in Line with CBO, BPC Projections

September 2: Latest Monthly Treasury Data Doesn’t Change BPC Debt Limit Projection

August 25: CBO Debt Limit Projection Consistent with BPC’s Analysis

July 10: Debt Limit Brinkmanship Threatens Markets

U.S. Government Accountability Office: Market Response to Recent Impasses Underscores Need to Consider Alternative Approaches

May 18Debt Limit Update: Strong Tax Season Moves Most Likely X-Date Window to November/December

March 13Debt Limit Reinstatement: Why This Time is Different l Download the full analysis

March 3Debt Limit Update: X Date Most Likely in 4Q of 2015

2014

February 12: House-Passed Suspension Would Add Approximately $1 Trillion to Debt Limit in March 2015

February 6: What to do with the Federal Debt Limit? Five Ideas

January 30: BPC Debt Limit Projection: X Date Will Arrive Soon After Debt Limit Reinstatement

January 9: Extraordinary Measures, Simplified

2013

December 19: Late Start to Tax Filing Season Affects X Date

November 21Thoughts on CBO’s New Debt Limit Report

November 21Debt Limit Suspension: Frequently Asked Questions

October 18: BPC Estimates Agreement Will Increase Debt Limit by Roughly $600 billion; Debt Limit Suspended Until February 8, 2014

October 9: Could the X Date be delayed by extending the Debt Issuance Suspension Period?

October 8: As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow

October 3Will the Government Shutdown Delay the X Date?

September 25Debt Limit Update: No Change to BPC X Date Projection

September 10: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways

August 26: Statement by the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Steve Bell on the New Debt Limit Deadline

July 16Debt Limit Update: Still on Track for a Fall X Date

May 23Debt Limit Reinstated at $16.7 Trillion: Updated X Date Estimate

May 9Updated X Date Estimate: GSE Dividend Announcements

May 8H.R. 807 (the Full Faith and Credit Act) and the Debt Limit

April 26The Debt Limit: Updated X Date Projection

January 31H.R. 325, The Debt Limit, and Extraordinary Measures: A Technical Note

January 30When Will the Next Debt Limit X Date Be?

January 24: Fiscal Timeline Under Passage of H.R. 325

January 24: The House Republican Debt Limit Proposal, Explained

January 16: What Is a Government Default on its Debt?

January 16: Platinum Coins and IOUs: Missing the Point

January 16: Debt Limit Analysis Update

January 11: BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways

January 11: Will the Delay in the Tax Filing Season Affect the X Date?


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