By itself, the president’s decision to not certify the Iran nuclear deal will change nothing.
Leaders in Tehran seem to believe that the appearance of compliance with the nuclear deal is much more important than actually complying.
Starting in year 13, Iran will be able to breakout (produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon) in about 10 weeks, down from one year.
BPC analysis comparing the April framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 to the text of the final deal reveals several worrying discrepancies.
Given the complexity of the sanctions regime, distinguishing between those measures which are and are not “nuclear-related” will pose a significant challenge.
One critical provision of the final deal puts unexpected limitations on inspectors’ access to certain facilities.