The Next Swing States: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas

U.S. News and World Report
Apr. 12, 2012

One other interesting tidbit from the Bipartisan Policy Center’s forum on the demographics of the 2012 election: The two demographic experts were asked about states that don’t swing now but could flip their partisanship in a cycle or two. The answers: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.

Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress and Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics identified the three states as ones which could flip their currently solid partisan affiliation in the medium term. "Arizona is very, very rapidly becoming a minority majority state," Teixeira said, adding that Georgia will likely be one by 2020 and so "could be in play." Trende noted that contra that classic migration patterns of African-Americans leaving the South, they are migrating to Georgia, which is changing the state’s demographic profile and will make it more competitive. He also made a good point about Texas, cautioning that while the demographics in Texas increasingly favor Democrats, they "have a ways to go there" because they don’t have a deep bench of politicians who have been successful there.