The National Interest

June 9, 2011

By Jonathan Ruhe

Since last Friday’s attack on the presidential palace in Sanaa, conflicting reports have emerged about the extent of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s injuries and his ability to resume office. Questions abound regarding the timeframe for any return and whether Saudi Arabia (where Saleh is recuperating from surgery) or the rapid pace of events on the ground in Yemen would make this impossible.

Long before the current turmoil erupted, uncertainty has been the only certainty of day-to-day events in Yemen: tribal truces are continuously up for grabs, on some days battalions can deploy freely, on others they come under attack, and crucial commodities teeter between adequate and nonexistent. More recently, Saleh agrees to transfer power one day and reneges the next. But just as the country confounds expectations in the short run, it routinely confirms them in the long run. This is because history, demography and geography have created near-permanent civil conflict that Saleh’s rule has worsened steadily and predictably.

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Foreign Policy Project, Stabilizing Fragile States Initiative