What are the most pressing issues in housing policy today?
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The most pressing issue about housing policy TODAY is the urgent need to think about the housing policy of the FUTURE.
A significant contribution to "FUTURETHINK" was made recently by the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University when the released a report and presentation in October, 2011, entitled "Housing the Region's Future Workforce."
The key findings are that "The types of housing that will be needed to accommodate new workers over the next 20 years reflects the changing demographics of the working age population and the mix of jobs the region is expecting. Thus, over 60 percent of the new housing units needed in the region over the next two decades will be multi-family while less than 40 percent will be single family. The region's current housing stock, by contrast, is 67 percent single-family and 33 percent multifamily.
There will be a shift in the homeownership rate for the future residents of the Washington DC region. Currently, the region's homeownership rate is 64 percent. However, only 55 percent of the new workers to the region over the next 20 years will live in owner-occupied units, while 45 percent will rent. Based on the housing need forecasts, more than two-thirds of owner-occupied units need to be priced below $400,000. More than half of new renters will need units with rents less than $1,250 a month. Thus, in order to keep new workers living within the region, there is a need for relatively smaller and more moderately priced housing in the decades to come.
Much of the moderately priced housing will not be new construction, but rather must be preserved from the existing stock. More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable homes in the region."
These findings for the DC metropolitan region are profound, provocative and powerful.
As I was quoted in the Washington Post in an article on this report:"It’s going to require a lot more creative thinking,” said Conrad Egan, former chairman of the Fairfax County Redevelopment and Housing Authority. “If we’re going to grow jobs as predicted and match them up with the availability of land and transportation opportunities, we’re going to have to fundamentally rethink a lot of the assumptions upon which we’ve been operating. . . . It’s a wakeup call to the leaders of today so they can put in place policies and strategies to support the leaders of tomorrow, who are going to be dealing with these challenges.”
An obvious question is, of course, to what extent are these trends evident across the nation and with what implications for national policy.
The BPC Housing Commission should pursue analyses to answer these questions and develop recommendations to address the implications, challenges and opportunities.
Conrad Egan is Senior Advisor for the Affordable Housing Institute.
Welcome to the BPC Housing Commission expert forum! This forum is intended to foster interactive and substantive discussion about pressing housing issues. Each month contributors from different parts of the housing sector will be invited to respond to a discussion topic. Guest posts will feature prominently on BPC's website, as well as be shared regularly with Housing Commissioners to help inform their work.
Have a pressing question you’d like us to consider? Please leave it in the comments section. We encourage you and our expert bloggers to add comments, contributing to the national dialogue on solutions for the future of the housing sector.
Expert bloggers are not members of the BPC Housing Commission. Any views expressed on this forum do not necessarily represent the views of the Housing Commission, its Co-Chairs, or the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Comments
Anonymous
Feb. 12, 2012
Since the launch of the new Housing Commission, the National Academy of Housing and Sustainable Communities has held two sessions with staff of the Commission. These ‘focus groups’ of experts in the industry, included directors of five former housing commissions and others from many stakeholder roles in the housing and other sectors. The following is a quick list of the most critical housing issues, sort of like the “1000 Places to See Before You Die,” except this is a more societal situation. It’s not complete, given space limitations, and one could argue over the hierarchy or the priority. But, if the Commission, with the support of many others, helps to solve even one or two…bravo!
1. Foremost is the underwater mortgage problem, the overhang, or whatever one calls it. Obviously, how to do it has eluded a lot of stakeholders to date, with 12.5 million households being impacted, and who in essence are now part of the renter population in communities that are not used to renter mentalities.
2. Equally important is for housing construction to revive as this seems to be the backbone of recovery and is the backbone of our society. In talking to the BiPPC Transportation Project director, Emil Frankel, one has the impression that their sizable infrastructure legislation is 'waiting' on the housing sector to be first, and thus both are roped together like mountain climbers. Fiscal austerity breeds innovation. There is a federal role in housing, especially affordable housing, for extremely low-income people.
3. Help sort out the GSEs/FHA/Ginnie Mae secondary market/guarantee issues (role of private vs. public, as right now it's 95% nationalized, according to various reports and articles).
4. Clarify and sort out the housing subsystem in federal government, but it can't be HUD-centric as it now has less to do with housing policy compared to a combination of many other players: Treasury, Federal Reserve, FDIC, Commodity Commission, SEC, FHLB board, FHFA, OMB, VA, CFPA, CFTC, NHLBB, etc., for linking housing needs/supply to locational efficiency and cross-cutting community sustainability (transportation, education, energy, environment, business development and jobs, health and human services, land use departments and agencies). Much more needs to be recognized and reforms made. The House Appropriations THUD was a start.
5. Examine the continuing dysfunction of the federal regulatory roles - too much in some areas, not enough in others needs to be rethought and how the various levels of government regulation, federal, state and local, can be improved with an eye to facilitating responsible development and still forestall corruption. For instance, given that stimulus funds got spent so quickly and effectively by local housing authorities (PHAs), what factors contributed to their doing so? Was it that legislative deadlines and OMB oversight forced HUD to act quickly and audit afterwards? Also, is the IRS tax credit process a better administrative model that will produce more output?
6. With regard to federalism - what programs and in what format should housing programs be delivered through what distribution channels (States, CEOs of Metropolitan areas, PHAs, by housing block grants allowing local decisions, and what programs, should be incorporated.).
7. Has the U.S. Housing Act of 1937 bred excessive federal micromanagement of local administration outlived its time? Shall we just start over? Over and again, one size fits all is not appropriate. Local circumstances, with appropriate safeguards should determine what needs to be done. Along with that, is there a role for HUD or has it become too rigid to contribute to its original mission? If HUD is abolished, who takes over its critical functions?
8. The social equity and quality of life goals - segregation and choices, homeless, the poor, elderly, vets, and handicapped – have not been met. Also, is the homeownership=stable middle class trope the only way? Let’s re-examine neighborhood associations and new norms.
9. What is the meaning of the emerging demographics and their relationship to homeownership/rental ratios of government support? Is it a third rail to step on the fact enunciated by Ron Terwilliger that $5 billion currently goes for tax credits (rental population) vs. $95 billion for mortgage home deduction and can it be more equalized? Canada has no mortgage deduction and has a higher homeownership rate. Why? Are there other international models that we should be looking at as well, both to avoid or to replicate in times of austerity (e.g., the EU is thinking about a financial transactions fee to re-distribute to the poor in some form – could it be housing subsidies or land trust in our case). Please analyze and decide.
10. What about the UD (urban development) side of HUD - revive it or replace it? How do we find an improved role for expanding federal Inter-agency partnerships and rationalize the weak White House Office of Urban Affairs vs. Domestic Council situation? Please evaluate.
11. Review what is still missing in key monitoring and performance measures to improve chances of gaining more public acceptance and thereby Congressional adoption of various policy/program initiatives - what really works or doesn't? Also, look at the recent dashboard monitoring pilot in the White House that rewards preference points for other federal programs to support and leverage. Technology allows us to transform the financial side of the industry into behemoths; yet the homebuilding and selling side is still essentially mom-and-pop. Why? Or is this still true? Through technology, remote monitoring can take the place of staff reductions and labor-intensive sub-sectors can be replaced gradually, balancing it with job creation elsewhere.
12. Why aren’t we able better to ‘manage’ the entire nation’s urban research and demonstration process going on in all the departments and in the non-profit and foundation/academic sector? Is there a need for an A-95-like process? Or look at Germany’s 10-year plans. At least, where is the virtual one-stop center for compiling this data? There may even be some incremental gaps the Commission budget can fill with expert memos on specific issues and questions of the Commissioners. The underlying assumption, of course, is that shared research depends on shared goals and the same data definition. NB: what if the data shows there wasn’t much positive result for the public investment, as in the report just released on Moving to Opportunity?
13. Perhaps this is a repeat of locational efficiency, but it bears repeating: Please investigate the powerful potential of using positive, persuasive Federal incentives through such areas as transportation and HUD funding to encourage stronger support at the state and local governmental levels for the updating and strengthening of zoning and planning policies and strategies. This will better anticipate and support future opportunities and challenges to more strongly connect jobs, homes, transport, and economic viability.
Housing advances have historically been introduced on the backs of other crises (the Edson Theorem). Can the Commission find a way to “get out of the ditch” using common-sense solutions (co-chair Mitchell); find “long-term solutions” (co-chairs Secretaries Cisneros, Martinez); and “come up with a comprehensive solution vs. band-aids” (co-chair Sen. Bond)? It’s worth a try.
Kent Watkins, Chairman, National Academy of Housing and Sustainable Communities and CEO, TOD Associates
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