Understanding the New Energy Landscape: Technological Change and Global Market Integration

WHEN: Wednesday, June 27th 2012 8:00 am to 3:00 pm

WHERE: Grand Hyatt (Constitution Ballroom), 1000 H St NW, Washington, DC

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Spotlight on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012

America’s energy landscape has undergone seismic shifts over the past few years. While the most striking change has occurred in U.S. supplies and production of oil & natural gas, almost every sector of the energy industry has experienced rapid changes. Shale gas has grown from 5 percent to 33 percent of total U.S gas production in just five years. Domestic oil production, which had declined steadily for decades, has begun rising again, growing from 4.95 million barrels per day in 2008 to 5.66 million barrels per day in 2011. Natural gas liquids production, which has ramped up recently due to both increased shale gas and tight oil production, is expected to be a game changer on the energy landscape. Electricity generation from natural gas has increased sharply recently and renewable generation more than doubled from 2000 through 2010, with installed wind capacity increasing by more than 16-fold.

All of these changes will challenge existing infrastructure and require substantial new infrastructure investment. At the same time, total demand for energy in the U.S. is growing more slowly, in part due to the recession, but also as a result of efficiency improvements across the buildings sector and in vehicles. All of these changes taken together have in many ways re-written the conventional wisdom on the outlook for U.S. energy supply and demand. BPC explored these rapid changes as well as potential trends and uncertainties over the coming decade, with a spotlight focus on the release of the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO 2012). Read the press release here.


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Keynote Speaker

Adam Sieminski Administrator, Energy Information Administration

Agenda

9:30: Welcome and Introduction Margot Anderson Executive Director, Energy Project Bipartisan Policy Center

Description of Sessions:

Session 1 (9:35): Annual Energy Outlook 2012 – Issues in Focus

Overview and highlights from the full release of EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012. Key issues include prospects for oil and natural gas production from tight formations, including cost uncertainty; the changing environment for fuel use in electricity power generation due to supply dynamics and changing relative fuel economics; the impacts of the proposed corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for light-duty vehicles in model years 2017 to 2025 on demand and imports; the potential impact of significant improvement in vehicle battery and non-battery system cost and performance on new LDV sales, energy consumption, and GHG emissions; and the potential impact of greater penetration by natural gas in the heavy duty vehicle market. Featuring:

  • Dave Conover, Senior Vice President, Dutko Grayling (Moderator)
  • John Conti, Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • James Burkhard, Managing Director Global Oil Group, IHS CERA (Respondent)
  • Linda Stuntz, Founding Partner, Stuntz, Davis, & Staffier, P.C. (Respondent)

10:30: Break

Session 2 (10:45): Emerging Oil & Gas Supplies: Future Prospects for Oil & Gas Production

Dramatic changes over the last decade have reshaped the U.S. supply outlook for unconventional natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. Advances in horizontal drilling techniques, hydraulic fracturing, and enhanced oil recovery have made it possible to commercially develop resources that were previously uneconomic. This session considered the potential implications of these recent technology breakthroughs and their impact on supplies, commodity markets, prices, and infrastructure. Featuring:

  • Guy Caruso, Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies (Moderator)
  • John Staub, U.S. Energy Information Administration Audience (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Daniel Ahn, Senior Economist & Head of Commodity Portfolio Strategy, Citigroup (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Charlie Cooke, Deputy Director, University of Texas Energy Institute (Presenter) View presentation slides

12:30: Keynote Address

Adam Sieminski , Administrator, Energy Information Administration

Session 3 (1:15): Fueling Electricity Markets: Short-term Dynamics, Long-term Trends

Market forces—including low natural gas prices, rising coal prices, slowing electric demand growth, and various support programs for renewable fuels—and new EPA regulations are transforming the electric power sector. The transformation is evident in the sector’s planned retirements, proposed generation additions, and changing fuel mix. This session explored electric power sector dynamics in concert with the AEO 2012 projections. Featuring:

  • Jennifer Macedonia, Senior Advisor, Bipartisan Policy Center (Moderator)
  • Alan Beamon, U.S. Energy Information Administration (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Jeffrey Burleson, Vice President System Planning, Southern Company Services (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Chris MacCracken, Principal, ICF International (Presenter) View presentation slides

Session 4 (2:45): Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector

Demand for transportation fuels has remained relatively flat in recent years. In fact, total U.S. liquid fuels consumption fell 1.8 percent last year, with motor gasoline consumption accounting for the majority of the decline. High gasoline prices, regulatory developments (improved fuel efficiency standards and the renewable fuels standard), increased use of alternative fuels, and a slow economic recovery are all affecting demand for fuels in the transportation sector. This session examined some of the key drivers of these trends. Featuring:

  • Emil Frankel, Transportation Project Director, Bipartisan Policy Center (Moderator)
  • James Turnure, Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Drew Kodjak, Executive Director, International Council on Clean Transportation (Presenter) View presentation slides
  • Alan Krupnick, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Energy Economics and Policy, Resources for the Future (Presenter) View presentation slides

4:00: Wrap up

1000 H St NW
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Washington
2012-06-27 00:00:00
2012-06-27 13:00:00
2012-06-27 20:00:00
DC
Grand Hyatt (Constitution Ballroom)