The Geopolitical Impacts of the U.S. Tight Oil Boom: Implications for OPEC and the U.S. Strategic Posture

Date: 

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Time: 

9:00 AM to 2:00 PM

Venue: 

The Hyatt Regency (Regency C/D)

Address: 

400 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington
DC
20001

Attached files:

Featured video

Recent reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others have estimated that the United States, given its newfound tight oil wealth, will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer by the end of this decade. Growth in North American production could shift the balance of energy power from the Middle East to the West, with implications for the power of OPEC, and the competitiveness of historic suppliers. The propagation of tight oil technology could bring down the price of oil and offer opportunities for changing energy security relationships in Europe, Africa and Latin America. Optimism about North American self-sufficiency has also raised questions about the need or willingness of the United States to sustain its security engagement in the Middle East and Africa.

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The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) hosted the first in a series of four events on the New Geopolitics of Petroleum and Natural Gas. This first session explored the realistic implications of what the tight oil boom means for the country in both economic and geopolitical terms, with David Goldwyn of Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC and former State Department Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs moderating. Our primary points of focus were the sustainability of the tight oil boom and its geopolitical implications.


Agenda

8:30AM

Breakfast Available

9:00AM

Welcome and Introduction

9:15AM

Keynote: The Impact of Tight Oil and U.S. Strategic Posture

9:45AM

Panel 1: How Sustainable Is the Tight Oil Boom?

The tight oil boom has stirred discussion of the United States as an oil-producing powerhouse and of self-sufficiency in energy production. This panel will examine the sustainability of the tight oil boom by considering the size of the resource, existing energy policies and infrastructure in place to produce and transport that oil. Further discussion will seek to illuminate the impacts of a sustained boom on global oil markets.

  • Edward Morse, Global Head of Commodities Research, Citibank
  • Paul Sankey, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank
  • Katherine Spector, Head of Commodities Strategy, CIBC World Markets

11:00AM

Coffee Break

11:15AM

Panel 2: Geopolitical Impacts of Tight Oil

Given the global nature of oil markets, the tight oil boom is likely to have significant and lasting impacts on the world. How will U.S. foreign policy and strategy be affected by growing energy self-sufficiency? What impact will growing levels of U.S. oil production have on other oil producers, the most notable being OPEC? Finally, will the tight oil boom have the same global production implications that are being seen with shale gas?

  • Luis Giusti, Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Ambassador Carlos Pascual, Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, U.S. Department of State
  • Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, IHS

12:30PM

Lunch

12:45PM

Reconvening Remarks

  • Former Senator Pete V. Domenici, BPC Senior Fellow

12:50PM

Panel 3: The Likelihood and Implications of Crude Oil Exports

As oil production has increased in the U.S. as the result of the tight oil boom, much attention has been drawn to the issue of crude oil exports. Currently, the U.S. is an exporter of refined oil products, but does not permit crude oil exports. This session will explore the arguments for crude oil exports, considering the needs of domestic refiners, the industry perspective, and the potential impacts on geopolitics and financial markets.

  • Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration
  • Former Senator Bennett Johnston, Chairman, Johnston & Associates
  • Robin West, Chairman, PFC

2:00PM

Adjournment