Is there a demographic trend that favors either party? Ruy Teixeira, author of The Emerging Democratic Majority, has argued that the Democratic future is bright with the growth of the Hispanic vote and the move of younger educated voters to the Democratic Party. Sean Trende, in his recently released The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It, argues that the future is less certain for Republicans and Democrats. Both the Reagan coalition and the Clinton/Obama coalition have fractures, and there is no clear indication of what the future holds.

BPC examined these longer-range trends and more immediate questions such as: How will the Hispanic vote affect 2012? Will the president draw African American and younger voters in as large numbers as in 2008? Will the GOP advantage in the over 65 demographic increase as it has for the past several elections?

Introduction by

Jason Grumet
President, BPC

Featuring

Ruy Teixeira
Joint Fellow, Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation

• View Teixeira's presentation slides

Sean Trende
Senior Elections Analyst, RealClearPolitics

• View Trende's presentation slides

John Fortier
Director, BPC Democracy Project

Coverage

NPR: Obama May Not Need To Repeat 2008 Support From White Voters To Win

National Journal: Fresh Warning Signs for Obama

U.S. News and World Report: The Next Swing States: Arizona, Georgia, and Texas

Governing: Political Demographic Trends Brighter for Democrats

U.S. News and World Report: The Primaries Hurt Mitt Romney With Women and Hispanics

Read the Press Release: Bipartisan Policy Center to Discuss the Impact of Changing Party Demographics on the 2012 Election

BPC's 2012 Election Series

State of the Union: The Speechwriters' Perspective
January 24, 2012

As President Obama prepared to give the last State of the Union address of his first term, BPC launched an examination of the politics and policy impacting the upcoming presidential and congressional elections. From campaign- and election- themed events to policy debates, the year-long BPC effort began on January 24 with former White House speechwriters anticipating and framing the president's speech later that evening and the Republican response. The conversation explored the mechanics of writing a speech of such magnitude, the additional political pressures speechwriters face in an election year, and the expected reaction from the media and Republican presidential candidates.

The Presidential Primary System: How Well Does it Serve American Democracy?
March 8, 2012

This year's rollercoaster primary season raises many questions: Is primary voter turnout too low? Why do some states use party caucuses and can we count the voters accurately? Should we all vote on one day or in regional primaries? Just two days after Super Tuesday, BPC examined these questions and more in an analysis of the pros and cons of the current presidential primary system. The panel highlighted the release of a new report on 2012 primary turnout by Curtis Gans, the nation's leading expert on voter turnout.

Democracy Project, 2012 Politics