Disclaimer
The views expressed on this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders, or its board of directors.
June 18, 2013
Voters appear to have been motivated by domestic issues: personal freedoms and economic stagnation
The result of last Friday’s presidential election in Iran was unexpected in two ways: first, that the cleric Hassan Rohani, and not a candidate closer to Supreme Leader Khamenei, emerged victorious; and second that he gathered more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. With five other candidates in the running, this amounted to a landslide. Hope is high in Washington and European capitals that some of Rohani’s comments during the campaign—arguing that it is time that nuclear negotiations are handled by someone “with an understanding of diplomacy”—mean that Iran might prove more willing to make concessions on its nuclear program. But given how surprised Western analysts were by Rohani’s election in the first place, it is important to keep in mind how opaque the Iranian political system, and its motivations, remains. In particular, policymakers should take caution to avoid two potential missteps: one analytic, the other tactical.
The latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), released on May 22, demonstrates that Iran is continuing a trend first identified in February 2013: slowing down and speeding up elements of its nuclear program to evade red lines set by U.S. and Israeli leaders, while drawing closer to nuclear weapons capability.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit the White House next week
Policymakers are once again debating whether or not the United States ought to take a greater role in Syria’s civil war. Recent events have brought this question to the fore: reports from multiple countries of civilian exposure to chemical weapons; Israeli airstrikes against missiles intended for the terrorist group Hezbollah; and an ever-worsening refugee crisis in countries neighboring Syria. This debate, however, misses one fundamental question: even if the United States were to intervene, even if Assad were ousted, what would become of Syria then?
BPC has called for a robust triple-track strategy to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons
By Jonathan Ruhe
Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capability is the most urgent national security challenge facing the United States. Only through bipartisan cooperation can the U.S. enact the tough policies and maintain the resolve needed to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Thus, we applaud House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-CA) and Ranking Member Elliot Engel (D-NY), for jointly introducing legislation that would take much-needed actions – including some recommended by the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) – for preventing a nuclear Iran.
Iran is shrewdly seeking to evade international pressure while hastening its advance to nuclear weapons capability
The latest report by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), released on February 21, is remarkable for the seemingly contradictory developments it shows: Iran appears to be both slowing down and speeding up elements of its nuclear program.
Interpreting Iran's seemingly contradictory actions ahead of February 26 negotiations in Kazakhstan
With international negotiations on its nuclear program scheduled for February 26 in Kazakhstan, Iran has made some interesting – and seemingly incongruous – announcements in recent days. First, on February 12, Iran confirmed that it has once again drawn from its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium in order to produce reactor fuel. Then, on February 13, it announced that it had begun the work of installing next generation centrifuges at its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). The first of these actions effectively slows down Iran’s approach to nuclear weapons capability, the latter hastens it.
A weekly roundup of events featuring Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) founders, senior fellows, project leaders, and staff.
Tuesday, December 11
2:00PM to 3:00PM
Who: Shai Akabas, Senior Policy Analyst, Economic Policy Project
What: On December 11 at 2:00PM EST, BPC and the National Association of Development Organizations (NADO) will host a free webinar on the fiscal cliff and its potential impact on regional development organizations and local governments. Shai Akabas, a senior policy analyst at BPC, will provide an in-depth look at the implications for the economy and federal spending. Learn more and register here.
Permanent normal trade relations status could double American experts to Russia in five years
Yesterday, on a bipartisan vote of 92-4, the Senate passed legislation which graduates Russia from the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, thus granting the country permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status and holding Russian officials accountable if they violate human rights. The House passed the same bill last month on a 365-43 vote. The legislative language approved by Congress echoes recommendations developed and promoted by BPC in its Russia report released earlier this year.
With Iran already dangerously close to becoming a nuclear state, America must act to stop the clock
Iran’s nuclear program shows no signs of slowing down, although it is not progressing as rapidly as earlier in the year. The latest report by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), released on November 16, shows that in every measure Iran has either reached new highs or continues operating at the highest levels previously recorded.* Most disturbingly, Iran has completed the installation of all centrifuges (2,784 total) at its underground Fordow facility, although only a quarter (696) of them are currently operational. Once they are brought online, the remaining 2,088 centrifuges could as much as triple Iran’s production rate of 20% enriched uranium. Interestingly, however, Iranian leaders continue to keep their stockpile of 20% enriched uranium – one of the most important indicators of their proximity to a nuclear weapons capability – at stable levels (about 90 kilograms) by turning it into reactor fuel as quickly as they can produce it.
Every day without normal trade relations for Russia means lost opportunities for the U.S. economy
In anticipation of the vote tomorrow in the U.S. House of Representatives to grant Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to Russia, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) has compiled a clearinghouse of helpful materials on this topic produced by our task force on Russia.
Co-chaired by Senator Charles Robb (D-VA) and Secretary of Commerce Don Evans, this bipartisan group recommends graduating Russia from Jackson-Vanik and granting them PNTR as part of a comprehensive policy framework that includes legislation to promote more effectively Russian human rights and civil society. This will allow U.S. manufacturing, agricultural and business sectors to take full advantage of Russia's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), while also promoting the welfare of the Russian people and advancing American values.
A nuclear Iran would heighten expectations of potential future disruptions in global energy markets
By Jonathan Ruhe
Viewers could be forgiven for wondering if last Monday night’s presidential debate was actually about foreign affairs. Each candidate turned to his domestic policy talking points when questioned about a variety of international topics, focusing in detail on the need for a “strong economy here at home.”
Every day without normal trade relations for Russia means lost opportunities for U.S. businesses and workers
In late August, Russia officially became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and agreed to abide by international rules to open its markets to foreign investments. Congress must graduate Russia from the Cold War Jackson-Vanik Amendment and grant them Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) if the United States is to take advantage of Russia’s membership and the opportunities for U.S. businesses and products this provides. Otherwise, Moscow will be permitted under WTO rules to discriminate against U.S. businesses and exports.
Russia’s demand for U.S. agricultural products, consumer goods and manufactured items is very robust, and major Russian companies need U.S. financial and human capital in a variety of high-technology sectors to modernize and sustain GDP growth. Experts estimate that American exports to Russia could double in five years – to $20 billion – which could spur job creation and growth here at home. Failure to grant PNTR will cause a wide range of U.S. companies and workers, from Silicon Valley to America’s agricultural and industrial heartlands, to miss out on the opportunities that their foreign competitors in the WTO will enjoy in Russia, one of the fastest growing markets in the world. With Russia embedded in the WTO’s institutions and commercial laws, the United States will also have a stronger toolkit to protect its investors and resolve trade disputes.
Iran has doubled the number of installed centrifuges and continues to deny IAEA access to key site
Despite six months of negotiations and the implementation of tough new international banking and energy sanctions, Iran has continued to dramatically advance its nuclear program. The latest report by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), released today, shows that in every measure Iran has either reached new highs or continues operating at the highest levels previously recorded.* Most disturbingly, Iran continues to accelerate its production of 20% enriched uranium – the production rate jumped 15% between May and August 2012 – and is on track to stockpile enough of it for a nuclear weapon (with further enrichment) by February 2013.
Russia’s WTO accession could create significant opportunities for American exporters and investors
By Jonathan Ruhe
As Russia prepares to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) next month, much debate on Capitol Hill centers on the future of U.S.-Russia economic relations, as well as the deteriorating human rights and rule of law situation in Russia. Last week, the Senate Finance Committee unanimously approved bipartisan legislation to grant permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status to Russia. The House Ways and Means Committee marked up H.R. 6156 (Russia and Moldova Jackson-Vanik Graduation Act), which was reported favorably by voice vote this week.
Unless it extends PNTR to Russia, the United States stands to lose out on significant economic opportunities from Russia’s WTO accession. To understand these potential benefits, it is important to have a clear picture of the current trade relationship between the two countries.
American exports to Russia could double in 5 years which could spur job creation and growth at home
By Jonathan Ruhe
As Russia prepares to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) this summer, much debate on Capitol Hill centers on the future of U.S.-Russia economic relations, as well as the deteriorating human rights situation in Russia. To understand this issue fully, it is important to have a clear picture of the current trade relationship between the two countries.
At $45 billion, bilateral trade flows between the United States and Russia are surprisingly low, especially considering they are the world’s largest and tenth-largest economies, respectively. The United States runs a $26 billion trade deficit with Russia – the eighth-largest with any of its trading partners. But American exports to Russia barely outpace those to the Dominican Republic, and the United States lags far behind other developed economies, particularly the European Union, when it comes to investing in Russia.
High and rising health care costs consume a large and rapidly growing portion of the federal budget, crowding out investments in other crucial priorities such as education, defense and infrastructure and putting pressure on other priorities of households, businesses and governments.
Health Care Cost Containment Report
A Bipartisan Rx for Patient-Centered Care and System-wide Cost Containment
Washington Post Op-Ed
Daschle, Domenici, Frist & Rivlin: How to build a better health-care system
To solicit public opinion from around the country, the Commission on Political Reform will propose a series of questions in the weeks leading up to each of the national conversations. The best responses will be incorporated into the town hall programs in real time.
Latest Questions
How do we attract the best candidates to run for public office?
Should there be a mandatory service requirement for young people today?
How do we attract the top talent to serve in government and elected office?
Is civility in Washington important to you?
The President’s Budget: Now What?
Paul Ryan’s FY 2014 Budget
Patty Murray’s FY 2014 Budget
Automatic, across-the-board spending cuts known as sequestration took effect on March 1, 2013.
Latest Updates
A Guide to the 2014 Sequester
How $85 Billion Became $80 Billion: The Story of the Shrinking 2013 Sequester
Thinking About A Second Sequester, Fiscal Year 2014, and Congress
The Continuing Resolution and What It Means for Sequestration
Mandatory Spending and Sequestration
Origins of the Sequester
